I started with the $150 and played until I have won the $35 planned. It seems yesterday was just a bad day, as things looked much better today. I had to make a bet of $64 only once this time, and I played longer (the whole session lasted about 10 minutes). Still, it is stressful and I will not rest easily until I have $1024 in this account. Even $256 will make me more hopeful.
Balance at the beginning of the day: $150
Balance at the end of the day: $185
Level of optimism: Rising!
Plan for next day: play until I have won $50 more.
Thursday, October 6, 2011
Wednesday, October 5, 2011
Day 1 - First experiences and losing hope
I added $135 to my casino account. This is slightly more than $128, or 2^7. My initial plan was to play until I have won $50, then log in two days later, win $50 again and proceed with my plan described in the previous post.
Most of the times my bets got up to no more than $2 or $4, but once it got to $32 and twice to $64! This means that if black had been drawn just one more time, I would have lost it all. All of a sudden, this does not seem like such a good idea.
I lost my nerve and played only until I had won $15. I'll try again tomorrow.
Balance at the beginning of the day: $135
Balance at the end of the day: $150
Level of optimism: Steadily dropping
Plan is to come back tomorrow and play until I have won $35 more.
And another change of plan - I do not intend to withdraw as soon as I have tripled the amount. It seems to me a better idea to have more funds in one casino and be able to afford more wrong draws, than have them spread out in several casinos.
Most of the times my bets got up to no more than $2 or $4, but once it got to $32 and twice to $64! This means that if black had been drawn just one more time, I would have lost it all. All of a sudden, this does not seem like such a good idea.
I lost my nerve and played only until I had won $15. I'll try again tomorrow.
Balance at the beginning of the day: $135
Balance at the end of the day: $150
Level of optimism: Steadily dropping
Plan is to come back tomorrow and play until I have won $35 more.
And another change of plan - I do not intend to withdraw as soon as I have tripled the amount. It seems to me a better idea to have more funds in one casino and be able to afford more wrong draws, than have them spread out in several casinos.
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
The Strategy
This is how I am planning to proceed:
1. Create an account in 1 Casino. Note that some online casinos are likely to monitor if you are using the Double Down system, so it is a good idea to do some research before you choose your casino. From what I have read, the William Hill Online Casino will serve the purpose.
Note: Some online casinos are available to you only in certain regions. For instance, some are available only in the US, others only outside the US. In the future I am planning to compile a list of casinos where the DD system works, according to where you can use them.
2. Deposit at least $128 in your account. This is 2^7, and so if you are using an initial bet of $1, you will be able to afford to pick the wrong color 6 times in a row (bets: 1-2-4-8-16-32). The 7th time you will have to bet 64, and then you will have to win. Yes, this is risky, so if you can afford it, I'd recommend starting with $256 or even $512.
3. Play with an initial bet of $1. Each day play until one of two things happen:
- you have played more than 30 minutes (casinos are more likely to detect what you are doing if you stay logged in for a long time
OR
- you have already won $50. This limit serves two purposes. First, casinos are less likely to mind if your gain isn't too great. Second, if you don't play for too many rounds, chances of having 7 wrong colors in a row are less.
The second is much more likely to take place, as it usually takes a shorter time to accumulate a gain of $50.
4. Repeat Step 3 3-4 days/week. This will give you a gain of $150-$200 per week
5. Repeat this until you have at least $384 (=3x128) in your account. Then divide them as follows:
- $128 you will withdraw and keep. This is as much as you deposited. Now you know that you are playing only with won money and have not lost anything to the casino.
- $128 you will leave in your account and continue playing as before.
- $128 you will withdraw and deposit into an account in another casino.
6. Continue as before, this time playing in two casinos. This should bring you a gain of $300-$400 per week.
7. As you go on, you can move to more casinos, or leave greater amounts in your existing accounts, so that you can afford to lose more times in a row.
Note that if you are willing to deposit a larger amount initially, you may start with a larger initial bet.
Next post: We will finally start testing the system in practice.
1. Create an account in 1 Casino. Note that some online casinos are likely to monitor if you are using the Double Down system, so it is a good idea to do some research before you choose your casino. From what I have read, the William Hill Online Casino will serve the purpose.
Note: Some online casinos are available to you only in certain regions. For instance, some are available only in the US, others only outside the US. In the future I am planning to compile a list of casinos where the DD system works, according to where you can use them.
2. Deposit at least $128 in your account. This is 2^7, and so if you are using an initial bet of $1, you will be able to afford to pick the wrong color 6 times in a row (bets: 1-2-4-8-16-32). The 7th time you will have to bet 64, and then you will have to win. Yes, this is risky, so if you can afford it, I'd recommend starting with $256 or even $512.
3. Play with an initial bet of $1. Each day play until one of two things happen:
- you have played more than 30 minutes (casinos are more likely to detect what you are doing if you stay logged in for a long time
OR
- you have already won $50. This limit serves two purposes. First, casinos are less likely to mind if your gain isn't too great. Second, if you don't play for too many rounds, chances of having 7 wrong colors in a row are less.
The second is much more likely to take place, as it usually takes a shorter time to accumulate a gain of $50.
4. Repeat Step 3 3-4 days/week. This will give you a gain of $150-$200 per week
5. Repeat this until you have at least $384 (=3x128) in your account. Then divide them as follows:
- $128 you will withdraw and keep. This is as much as you deposited. Now you know that you are playing only with won money and have not lost anything to the casino.
- $128 you will leave in your account and continue playing as before.
- $128 you will withdraw and deposit into an account in another casino.
6. Continue as before, this time playing in two casinos. This should bring you a gain of $300-$400 per week.
7. As you go on, you can move to more casinos, or leave greater amounts in your existing accounts, so that you can afford to lose more times in a row.
Note that if you are willing to deposit a larger amount initially, you may start with a larger initial bet.
Next post: We will finally start testing the system in practice.
Monday, September 5, 2011
Some notes on probability
As we have discussed in the previous post, if you are betting on a color, your probability of winning is 18/37 (roughly 1/2). The probability of losing at least X times in a row is roughly (1/2)^X. For example, the probability of losing at least 7 times in a row is approximately (1/2)^7=1/128. Therefore, if you repeat the procedure many, many times (1000 or more), you are expected to lose at least 7 times in a row 1 in every 128 cases.
Note: From now on we will ignore the “0” for simplicity and assume that the chance of drawing either red or black is 1/2 instead of 18/37. This does not change anything, but you can keep in mind that you chance of winning is slightly less than what it appears here.
Something very important to understand if you wish to try the Double Down system is the concept of independence. Where the ball will fall now does not depend on where the ball had fallen in the previous round. This means that:
- If you are just starting to play, the probability that black will be drawn for the next two rounds is 1/4. Now, say that black has already been drawn in the first round. What is the probability that black will be drawn again in the second? It is not 1/4. It is 1/2 because what is drawn in this round does not depend on what was drawn in the previous round.
- If you have already lost 6 times, this does not in any way mean that your probability of losing the next time is 1/128. No, it is 1/2. Sorry!
- All of that sounded like bad news so far, so let me give you some good news as well. If you have already played 127 times and you have not lost 7 times in a row for a single time, this does not mean that your chances of losing 7 times in a row in the next round are high. No, before you have started the round, your chances of losing 7 times are still 1/128.
If you are completely new to this, it might be helpful to read the Wikipedia articles on Conditional probability and Statistical independence.
Next post: My plans, including how I am planning to do the experiment, which casinos I am going to use, in what order and how many at a time, what deposits I am planning to to and what initial bets I will use
Intro to the Double Down system for Roulette
Those of you who are familiar with the Double Down System are probably thinking that is sounds like a sure deal. Then why isn’t everyone using it? After reading some literature about it and thinking about the system in detail, I decided to test it for myself. Here I am going to share my plans and my experience after every day that I play.
Before I proceed, I will explain the DD system for those of you who do not know it in detail.
What is the Double Down system?
First of all, what is Roulette? Roulette is a game, in which a wheel of numbers spins in one direction, and a ball spins in another, and the players can bet on what number (or what kind of number) the ball will land on.
European (also called French) Roulette has 37 numbers, going from 0 to 36.
-18 numbers are red, 18 are black, and one is neither (the “0”, usually green).
-You can bet on a specific number, on the color, on if the number will be odd or even, on two adjoining numbers, on three numbers in a straight line, etc. For the Double Down system we are only interested in betting on a specific color (red vs. black). If you are interested in the other betting types, take a look at the very good Wikipedia article on Roulette.
Betting on a color
In this type of bet, you bet on whether the number chosen will be red or black. Your chance of winning is 18/37, since there are 37 numbers total and 18 of them are the color that you have chosen.
If you win, you get back twice the amount of your initial bet. For example, if you bet $1 on red, you’ll get back $2 if the ball falls on a red number, and you will get back $0 if the ball falls on black or “0”.
Naturally, the casino wins from these types of bets because your probability of winning is slightly less than 1/2 because of the “0”. But is there a way to cheat the casino and increase your chances of success?
The Double Down System
The Double Down System, also called the Martingale system, became popular in 18th century France and has been widely used ever since. There are many variations, and here I will present one of the simplest versions:
Choose a color to bet on. Say, “red”. Until the end of the game, you will bet only on red.
-Place your initial bet, for example $1, on red.
-If you win, your net win is $1. Stop here.
-If you lose, you have lost $1. Place 2x$1=$2 on red.
-If you win, you win $2. Your net gain is $2-$1=$1. Stop here.
-If you lose, your net loss so far is $1+$2=$3. Place 2x$2=$4 on red.
-If you win, you win $4. Your net gain is $4-$3=$1. Stop here.
-If you lose, your net loss so far is $3+$4=$7. Place 2x$4=$8 on red.
…
Using this system, you will end up with a gain of $1 after the first time the ball falls on red.
Why all the trouble for $1, you may ask. Note that your initial bet does not have to be 1. It can be any number that you like – 2, 13, 42, 2000... You only need to make sure that you double your previous bet at every round. If you start with an initial bet of $2000, you will win $2000 after the first time red is drawn. Still, to make a small win, you must be willing and able to risk a large amount, so I would recommends going with small amounts and repeating the cycle many times. If you do it with $1 and repeat it 100 times, you already have $100, which is already pretty good. Yes, it will get boring and repetitive after a while, but hey, can you think of easier ways to make money online?
Does the martingale system work in theory?
Sure it does… as long as you have an infinite amount of money. Yes, at the end you will have won your small prize, but what if black is drawn 10 times in a row? Doubling your bet every times raises the stakes very high, so your best chance will be to start with a large amount you are willing to risk and with a very low initial bet. Still, the possibility of a catastrophic loss is always there.
Dangers of the DD system:
1. The greatest danger is losing a large amount of money. Say you are playing with $1000 and start with an initial bet of $10. Black is drawn, you lose $10 and bet $20. Black is drawn again, you bet $40. Third time, you bet $80; fourth - $160, then $320. If black is drawn once again, for a 6th time, you would have already lost a total of $630, and will have $370 left in your account, and will be unable to make the required bet of $640.
The probability of black being drawn 6 times in a row is roughly 1/64 (or, more precisely (18/37)^6). If you play 100 times, this is likely to happen at least once. And if you play with initial amounts of $1, you will probably have to play more than 100 times if you wish to make a decent amount of money.
2.Most “real life” casinos have forbidden the DD system. However, many online casinos still allow it, as long as you don’t make too much. So another danger is that your online casino will figure out what you are doing and kick you out. Ways to prevent this would be to limit your wins and to limit the time you are logged in and playing. But more on that later.
Why isn’t everyone using it?
- Not everyone knows about this system.
- Many people dislike risks and gambling, and the DD systems holds the probability, although small, of a great loss.
- This takes the fun out of gambling.
- People get greedy. For example, you may become impatient with repeating the cycle again and again and winning $1 every single time, and you may decide to raise the initial bet. Bad idea. If you can afford to have 8 losses in a row, raising the bet from $1 to $2 already means you can afford only 7. Raising it to $4 means you can afford only 6. So a small initial bet is always best.
However, there are two sides of this coin. If you are using a small initial bet, this means that you have to repeat the cycle more times in order to win the amount you are aiming at. And repeating it more times increases the chances of having 6, 7, or more losses in a row.
As a conclusion: yes, the risks are substantial, but I am willing to give it a try and I’ll keep you posted along the way.
Next post: Basic probability concepts
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