Those of you who are familiar with the Double Down System are probably thinking that is sounds like a sure deal. Then why isn’t everyone using it? After reading some literature about it and thinking about the system in detail, I decided to test it for myself. Here I am going to share my plans and my experience after every day that I play.
Before I proceed, I will explain the DD system for those of you who do not know it in detail.
What is the Double Down system?
First of all, what is Roulette? Roulette is a game, in which a wheel of numbers spins in one direction, and a ball spins in another, and the players can bet on what number (or what kind of number) the ball will land on.
European (also called French) Roulette has 37 numbers, going from 0 to 36.
-18 numbers are red, 18 are black, and one is neither (the “0”, usually green).
-You can bet on a specific number, on the color, on if the number will be odd or even, on two adjoining numbers, on three numbers in a straight line, etc. For the Double Down system we are only interested in betting on a specific color (red vs. black). If you are interested in the other betting types, take a look at the very good
Wikipedia article on Roulette.
Betting on a color
In this type of bet, you bet on whether the number chosen will be red or black. Your chance of winning is 18/37, since there are 37 numbers total and 18 of them are the color that you have chosen.
If you win, you get back twice the amount of your initial bet. For example, if you bet $1 on red, you’ll get back $2 if the ball falls on a red number, and you will get back $0 if the ball falls on black or “0”.
Naturally, the casino wins from these types of bets because your probability of winning is slightly less than 1/2 because of the “0”. But is there a way to cheat the casino and increase your chances of success?
The Double Down System
The Double Down System, also called the Martingale system, became popular in 18th century France and has been widely used ever since. There are many variations, and here I will present one of the simplest versions:
Choose a color to bet on. Say, “red”. Until the end of the game, you will bet only on red.
-Place your initial bet, for example $1, on red.
-If you win, your net win is $1. Stop here.
-If you lose, you have lost $1. Place 2x$1=$2 on red.
-If you win, you win $2. Your net gain is $2-$1=$1. Stop here.
-If you lose, your net loss so far is $1+$2=$3. Place 2x$2=$4 on red.
-If you win, you win $4. Your net gain is $4-$3=$1. Stop here.
-If you lose, your net loss so far is $3+$4=$7. Place 2x$4=$8 on red.
…
Using this system, you will end up with a gain of $1 after the first time the ball falls on red.
Why all the trouble for $1, you may ask. Note that your initial bet does not have to be 1. It can be any number that you like – 2, 13, 42, 2000... You only need to make sure that you double your previous bet at every round. If you start with an initial bet of $2000, you will win $2000 after the first time red is drawn. Still, to make a small win, you must be willing and able to risk a large amount, so I would recommends going with small amounts and repeating the cycle many times. If you do it with $1 and repeat it 100 times, you already have $100, which is already pretty good. Yes, it will get boring and repetitive after a while, but hey, can you think of easier ways to make money online?
Does the martingale system work in theory?
Sure it does… as long as you have an infinite amount of money. Yes, at the end you will have won your small prize, but what if black is drawn 10 times in a row? Doubling your bet every times raises the stakes very high, so your best chance will be to start with a large amount you are willing to risk and with a very low initial bet. Still, the possibility of a catastrophic loss is always there.
Dangers of the DD system:
1. The greatest danger is losing a large amount of money. Say you are playing with $1000 and start with an initial bet of $10. Black is drawn, you lose $10 and bet $20. Black is drawn again, you bet $40. Third time, you bet $80; fourth - $160, then $320. If black is drawn once again, for a 6th time, you would have already lost a total of $630, and will have $370 left in your account, and will be unable to make the required bet of $640.
The probability of black being drawn 6 times in a row is roughly 1/64 (or, more precisely (18/37)^6). If you play 100 times, this is likely to happen at least once. And if you play with initial amounts of $1, you will probably have to play more than 100 times if you wish to make a decent amount of money.
2.Most “real life” casinos have forbidden the DD system. However, many online casinos still allow it, as long as you don’t make too much. So another danger is that your online casino will figure out what you are doing and kick you out. Ways to prevent this would be to limit your wins and to limit the time you are logged in and playing. But more on that later.
Why isn’t everyone using it?
- Not everyone knows about this system.
- Many people dislike risks and gambling, and the DD systems holds the probability, although small, of a great loss.
- This takes the fun out of gambling.
- People get greedy. For example, you may become impatient with repeating the cycle again and again and winning $1 every single time, and you may decide to raise the initial bet. Bad idea. If you can afford to have 8 losses in a row, raising the bet from $1 to $2 already means you can afford only 7. Raising it to $4 means you can afford only 6. So a small initial bet is always best.
However, there are two sides of this coin. If you are using a small initial bet, this means that you have to repeat the cycle more times in order to win the amount you are aiming at. And repeating it more times increases the chances of having 6, 7, or more losses in a row.
As a conclusion: yes, the risks are substantial, but I am willing to give it a try and I’ll keep you posted along the way.
Next post: Basic probability concepts
