The Strategy

This is how I am planning to proceed:

1. Create an account in 1 Casino. Note that some online casinos are likely to monitor if you are using the Double Down system, so it is a good idea to do some research before you choose your casino. From what I have read, the William Hill Online Casino will serve the purpose.

Note: Some online casinos are available to you only in certain regions. For instance, some are available only in the US, others only outside the US. In the future I am planning to compile a list of casinos where the DD system works, according to where you can use them.

2. Deposit at least $128 in your account. This is 2^7, and so if you are using an initial bet of $1, you will be able to afford to pick the wrong color 6 times in a row (bets: 1-2-4-8-16-32). The 7th time you will have to bet 64, and then you will have to win. Yes, this is risky, so if you can afford it, I'd recommend starting with $256 or even $512.

3. Play with an initial bet of $1. Each day play until one of two things happen:

         - you have played more than 30 minutes (casinos are more likely to detect what you are doing if you    stay logged in for a long time

        OR

        - you have already won $50. This limit serves two purposes. First, casinos are less likely to mind if your gain isn't too great. Second, if you don't play for too many rounds, chances of having 7 wrong colors in a row are less.

The second is much more likely to take place, as it usually takes a shorter time to accumulate a gain of $50.

4. Repeat Step 3 3-4 days/week. This will give you a gain of $150-$200 per week

5. Repeat this until you have at least $384 (=3x128) in your account. Then divide them as follows:

        - $128 you will withdraw and keep. This is as much as you deposited. Now you know that you are playing only with won money and have not lost anything to the casino.

        - $128 you will leave in your account and continue playing as before.

        - $128 you will withdraw and deposit into an account in another casino.

6. Continue as before, this time playing in two casinos. This should bring you a gain of $300-$400 per week.

7. As you go on, you can move to more casinos, or leave greater amounts in your existing accounts, so that you can afford to lose more times in a row.

Note that if you are willing to deposit a larger amount initially, you may start with a larger initial bet.

Next post: We will finally start testing the system in practice.

Some notes on probability

As we have discussed in the previous post, if you are betting on a color, your probability of winning is 18/37 (roughly 1/2). The probability of losing at least X times in a row is roughly (1/2)^X. For example, the probability of losing at least 7 times in a row is approximately (1/2)^7=1/128. Therefore, if you repeat the procedure many, many times (1000 or more), you are expected to lose at least 7 times in a row 1 in every 128 cases.

Note: From now on we will ignore the “0” for simplicity and assume that the chance of drawing either red or black is 1/2 instead of 18/37. This does not change anything, but you can keep in mind that you chance of winning is slightly less than what it appears here.

Something very important to understand if you wish to try the Double Down system is the concept of independence. Where the ball will fall now does not depend on where the ball had fallen in the previous round. This means that:

- If you are just starting to play, the probability that black will be drawn for the next two rounds is 1/4. Now, say that black has already been drawn in the first round. What is the probability that black will be drawn again in the second? It is not 1/4. It is 1/2 because what is drawn in this round does not depend on what was drawn in the previous round.

- If you have already lost 6 times, this does not in any way mean that your probability of losing the next time is 1/128. No, it is 1/2. Sorry!

- All of that sounded like bad news so far, so let me give you some good news as well. If you have already played 127 times and you have not lost 7 times in a row for a single time, this does not mean that your chances of losing 7 times in a row in the next round are high. No, before you have started the round, your chances of losing 7 times are still 1/128.

If you are completely new to this, it might be helpful to read the Wikipedia articles on Conditional probability and Statistical independence.

Next post: My plans, including how I am planning to do the experiment, which casinos I am going to use, in what order and how many at a time, what deposits I am planning to to and what initial bets I will use