As we have discussed in the previous post, if you are betting on a color, your probability of winning is 18/37 (roughly 1/2). The probability of losing at least X times in a row is roughly (1/2)^X. For example, the probability of losing at least 7 times in a row is approximately (1/2)^7=1/128. Therefore, if you repeat the procedure many, many times (1000 or more), you are expected to lose at least 7 times in a row 1 in every 128 cases.
Note: From now on we will ignore the “0” for simplicity and assume that the chance of drawing either red or black is 1/2 instead of 18/37. This does not change anything, but you can keep in mind that you chance of winning is slightly less than what it appears here.
Something very important to understand if you wish to try the Double Down system is the concept of independence. Where the ball will fall now does not depend on where the ball had fallen in the previous round. This means that:
- If you are just starting to play, the probability that black will be drawn for the next two rounds is 1/4. Now, say that black has already been drawn in the first round. What is the probability that black will be drawn again in the second? It is not 1/4. It is 1/2 because what is drawn in this round does not depend on what was drawn in the previous round.
- If you have already lost 6 times, this does not in any way mean that your probability of losing the next time is 1/128. No, it is 1/2. Sorry!
- All of that sounded like bad news so far, so let me give you some good news as well. If you have already played 127 times and you have not lost 7 times in a row for a single time, this does not mean that your chances of losing 7 times in a row in the next round are high. No, before you have started the round, your chances of losing 7 times are still 1/128.
If you are completely new to this, it might be helpful to read the Wikipedia articles on Conditional probability and Statistical independence.
Next post: My plans, including how I am planning to do the experiment, which casinos I am going to use, in what order and how many at a time, what deposits I am planning to to and what initial bets I will use
